Monday, October 31, 2011

Allstate 3Q profit down 55 pct. on disaster claims (AP)

DES MOINES, Iowa ? Allstate Corp. said its third-quarter net income fell 55 percent after natural disasters cost the insurer $1.08 billion.

But Allstate said improved investment results and profit in its auto insurance segment helped offset some of the increased storm losses. Its net income was $165 million, or 32 cents per share, compared with $367 million, or 68 cents per share, a year ago.

The Northbrook, Ill.-based property and casualty insurer said its revenue rose 4.2 percent to $8.24 billion from $7.91 billion a year ago.

The company's adjusted operating income was $84 million, or 16 cents per share, compared with $452 million, or 83 cents per share a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected 8 cents per share on revenue of $7.99 billion.

Before Monday's earnings, Allstate disclosed third-quarter pre-tax catastrophe losses of $1.08 billion, up significantly from the $386 million reported in the 2010 third quarter.

The company saw a significant improvement in its investments, seeing a gain of $264 million from capital gains compared with a loss of $144 million a year ago.

The company said it increased premium rates for home owners to help offset higher claims from violent storms. It also discontinued insurance coverage for homes that it believes are too risky to insure, CEO Thomas Wilson said in an interview.

Home insurance premiums are up about 5 percent compared with a year ago and there are about 4 percent fewer policies in force. Auto premiums were increased about 1 percent on average from a year ago, Wilson said.

Overall, premiums written fell to $6.43 billion from $6.50 billion.

Allstate's combined ratio was 104.8, reflecting the storm-related losses of $1.1 billion, which affected the ratio by 16.7 points. A ratio above 100 means that for every premium dollar taken in, more than a dollar went to cover claims and expenses. A figure below 100 means the company made a profit on its insurance operations.

Allstate said it experienced 23 catastrophe loss events, including Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee.

Excluding catastrophe losses and prior year reserve re-estimates, the combined ratio was 89.2 during the third quarter, consistent with the third quarter of 2010.

Shares fell 82 cents, or 3 percent, to close at $26.34 before the company reported results. In after-market trading shares rose $1.12, or 4.25 percent.

Shares are off 17.4 percent so far this year. They've traded as high as $34.40 in the past 52 weeks.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111031/ap_on_bi_ge/us_earns_allstate

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Fundamentalist Christians protest at Paris theater

A riot police officer moves back a Christian activist during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

A riot police officer moves back a Christian activist during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

A Christian activist holds a crucifix during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

A Christian activist holds a crucifix during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

A Christian activist holds a placard reading "No fraternity without respect of the other" as she prays during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

A Christian activist holds a banner reading "Christ stoned, Christians insulted" during a demonstration, in Paris, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011, in front of the Theatre de la ville, where the Italian director Romeo Castellucci's play "On the Concept of the Face, Regarding the Son of God" is being performed. Christian fundamentalists protest against the play featuring the face of Christ drizzled with fake excrement. (AP Photo / Thibault Camus)

(AP) ? The city of Paris is filing legal complaints against a group of fundamentalist Christians who have been protesting a play currently showing at the municipal theater, claiming it is blasphemous, the mayor said Friday.

Riot police have been called in to chase off demonstrators bearing crosses loudly protesting in front of, and sometimes inside, the Theatre de la Ville since the Oct. 20 opening of the play.

"Sur le Concept du Visage du fils de Dieu" ("On the Concept of the Son of God's Face"), by Italian Romeo Castellucci is a provocative story centering on a young man caring for his aged and incontinent father. A portrait of the face of Christ looms large onstage throughout and projectiles are ultimately thrown at it.

Each night, police have had to defend the theater from a group of ultra-Christian protesters ? organized by the group Renouveau France ? who turn up with crucifixes and banners denouncing "Christianophobia," determined to disrupt the show .

Mayor Bertrand Delanoe said in a statement that Paris can't tolerate "such expressions of fundamentalism and intolerance."

His statement said the city is filing complaints when demonstrators try to interrupt performances.

The play has been shown elsewhere without incident, including in Poland, Italy and Spain ? traditionally Catholic countries.

Commentators backing the play contend it is not intended to offend Christ.

The director of the theater, in the center of Paris, Emmanuel Demarcy-Moto, denounced the "odious threats" and vowed that the show must go on.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/4e67281c3f754d0696fbfdee0f3f1469/Article_2011-10-28-France-Theater%20Protest/id-a16fcfbf8da547fbb63300a712f53a5d

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Bangkok flood defenses hold back peak coastal tide

Residents stand as water from the swollen Chao Phraya River flows through a shopping center, located on its bank, in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Residents stand as water from the swollen Chao Phraya River flows through a shopping center, located on its bank, in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Thai soldiers and residents carry sandbags to fortify a wall breached by swollen Chao Phraya river in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011. The complex network of flood defenses erected to shield Thailand's capital from the country's worst floods in nearly 60 years was put to the test Saturday as coastal high tides hit their peak. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Thai soldiers pass sandbags to fortify a wall breached by swollen Chao Phraya river in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011. The complex network of flood defenses erected to shield Thailand's capital from the country's worst floods in nearly 60 years was put to the test Saturday as coastal high tides hit their peak. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

A Thai navy man pulls a boat carrying evacuees at an flooded area in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday Oct. 29, 2011. The complex network of flood defenses erected to shield Thailand's capital from the country's worst floods in nearly 60 years was put to the test Saturday as coastal high tides hit their peak. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Thai soldiers and volunteers pass sandbags as they fortify an alley after swollen Chao Phraya river overflows in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011. The complex network of flood defenses erected to shield Thailand's capital from the country's worst floods in nearly 60 years was put to the test Saturday as coastal high tides hit their peak. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

(AP) ? Defenses shielding the center of Thailand's capital from the worst floods in nearly 60 years mostly held at critical peak tides Saturday, but areas along the city's outskirts remained submerged along with much of the countryside.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said the floodwaters have started to recede after killing almost 400 people, submerging entire towns across the country's heartland and shuttering hundreds of factories over the last two months. She urged citizens to let the crisis take its course as the floodwaters slowly drain to the sea, with Bangkok lying in their path.

"We have the good news that the situation in the central region has improved as runoff water gradually decreased," she said. "I thank people and urge them to be more patient in case this weekend is significant because of the high tide."

Bangkok residents watched the city's dikes and sandbag barriers warily as the high tide pushing up the Chao Phraya River from the Gulf of Thailand peaked just after 9 a.m. They had been told for more than a week that Saturday's tide would be the greatest test of the capital's flood defenses since the northern deluge first approached Bangkok more than three weeks ago.

While some water doused streets and shops along the river, the tide fell short of the expected high predicted by the Thai navy and there was no major breach. Higher than usual tides will continue through Monday, but none was predicted as high as Saturday morning's.

City official Adisak Kantee said the city's concrete barriers "are efficiently protecting Bangkok from deluge," though he said smaller, private dikes might yet fail.

"The situation is so far under control," he said.

Yingluck said in her weekly radio address the government was trying to speed the drainage rate and water in the greater Bangkok area should recede within days.

While downtown Bangkok were bone-dry and bustling, areas along the city's outskirts saw flooding spread. Seven of Bangkok's 50 districts ? all in the northern and western outskirts ? are heavily inundated. Eight other districts have seen less serious flooding.

In the city's west, not far from the flooded district of Bang Phlat, workers filled sandbags and stacked them in pickup trucks for delivery to the front lines, while vendors did booming trade in life vests, plastic boats, styrofoam and anything else that floated. With many roads in the area submerged, traffic was heavy both heading in and out of the city.

Thousands of Bangkok residents used a special five-day holiday to leave town, wary at confusing warnings about the flood threat and others concerned about sparse supplies in stores due to weeks of panic buying and flood-related distribution problems.

Bangkok Gov. Sukhumbhand Paribatra highlighted another threat: sanitation. He ordered boats to collect uncollected garbage in a flooded district where most places were inaccessible by truck.

On Saturday, the agency tasked with keeping the public informed, the Flood Relief Operations Center, was forced to move its headquarters from its base at Don Muang airport, which is used mostly for domestic flights, to a government building nearby after a power transformer malfunctioned. The airport closed Tuesday because of flooding on the runways and surrounding streets.

While many in Bangkok will be breathing somewhat easier now that the highest of tides has passed, there was no complacency in the Sam Sen area, where a floodwall burst Saturday morning under the pressure from the surging water. Residents and soldiers stood shoulder to shoulder in the churning torrents trying to plug the gap and get the flow under control.

At the nearby Boonchuay boxing camp, a handful of Muay Thai fighters went through their afternoon workout, sparring in a ring surrounded by the overflow of the Chao Phraya river. The camp's well-worn heavy bags dangled inches above the murky floodwaters, while the weight machines sat submerged up to their seats, rendering them unusable.

Don Krasaein, a junior lightweight fighter from the northeastern province of Nakorn Ratchasima, is one of 10-20 boxers who for the past month have had to cut out exercises that can't be done in the ring but come for three-hour workouts every morning and afternoon.

Don, 31, said the flooding was a distraction, but he wouldn't allow it to affect his fighting, despite the water swelling and peeling the skin on his feet. But he admitted to some worry.

"I'm scared the water is going to rise even more," he said.

___

Associated Press writers Vee Intarakratug and Chris Blake contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2011-10-29-AS-Thailand-Floods/id-92c1778cfab845a58fc35eaace2b20a3

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Sunday, October 30, 2011

Robins Found Guilty In West Nile Virus Spread

60-Second Science | More Science

A study of the spread of West Nile Virus across North America since its introduction in 1999 implicates robins as a key disease vector. Sophie Bushwick.

More 60-Second Science

West Nile virus first appeared in North America in 1999. And it quickly moved across the continent. Now a study has pinned the proliferation on a particular culprit: robins. The work is published in the journal Science. [A. Marm Kilpatrick, Globalization, Land Use, and the Invasion of West Nile Virus]

A variety of animals can serve as hosts for West Nile, but the virus primarily spreads through a few species of mosquitoes that usually feed on birds, and those bird species, which become viral hosts. Robins may not be the most abundant of birds, but mosquitoes find their blood particularly tasty, frequently feeding on them and turning them into viral ?super-spreaders.?

In fact, the virus may be why the once-growing robin population has leveled off. The mosquitoes and birds responsible for West Nile?s spread abound where people also live, raising the odds that a mosquito that picked up the virus feeding on a robin could transmit it to a person.

Knowing that the spread of mosquito-borne disease depends on the insects? feeding habits could help researchers predict and prevent the spread of new pathogens. As Dickenson said, hope is the thing with feathers. Even if it?s infected.

?Sophie Bushwick

[The above text is a transcript of this podcast]


Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=7882ae28e261e6837e8d6fa33362e539

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NYSE price mix-up causes headaches

NYSE Euronext released incorrect price information on more than 1,000 stocks and other securities late Thursday, causing some shares to show price swings that hadn't really happened.

One example was Precision Castparts Corp., which at one point on Friday was supposedly down as much as 9.6 percent. But that was based on an incorrect closing price. In reality, its shares were down about 2.2 percent from their correct Thursday close.

"'Not fun' would be a good description of my entire morning," the company's communications director, Dwight E. Weber, said.

The problem started at 7:27 p.m. Thursday when NYSE's Arca platform sent incorrectly coded share price information. An e-mail sent to traders on Friday said the problem involved prices from aftermarket trades on Thursday that were incorrectly coded as if they had happened during regular trading that day. The e-mail says the mix-up potentially affected the closing price in some shares that trade on the New York Stock Exchange as well as its Arca platform.

The impact was on some stocks, exchange-traded funds, and mutual funds that started with the letters A though T. Symbols starting with U through Z were not affected.

NYSE spokesman Rich Adamonis said more than 1,000 ticker symbols were effected. He said the mix-up is still being investigated.

In the case of Precision Castparts, the erroneous price showed up as an artificially high closing trade ? exaggerating the shares' decline on Friday.

Some websites were still showing the wrong closing price for Precision Castparts early Friday afternoon. Adonis said websites have to manually update their databases with the corrected closing prices.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-10-28-US-Stock-Price-Mixup/id-593bea54b1784b7ea436a8763ff659a4

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92% Take Shelter

All Critics (90) | Top Critics (26) | Fresh (83) | Rotten (7)

A work of hushed and persuasive emotional veracity.

The movies have long been mad about the onset of madness.

The chilling genius of "Take Shelter'' isn't that the threat is never specified but that it doesn't need to be.

A movie for this moment in time, this moment in our lives.

The movie makes you uncomfortable, but in a good way. Nichols has turned the current moment of American unease into a powerful metaphor.

The story of a man afflicted with fearful visions, Take Shelter is a film that's hitting the right apocalyptic trumpet call at the right time.

Take Shelter is paced slowly and deliberately, which is necessary to make believable whatever is tormenting Curtis.

Those who've never understood [anxiety] could do to see Take Shelter as a total immersion virtual reality experience.

With that frowning face - including a right eye that looks sleepy and a left one that looks crazed - Michael Shannon could play Jekyll and Hyde at the same exact time.

Michael Shannon gives his best onscreen performance ever... and creates what might well be the finest male character of 2011.

While Take Shelter is a marvellously composed film, it is also one that holds you at a distance

Out of his 'Tree of Life'

It's creepy and enigmatic, but there's an odd sense of enlightenment as well, making the effort valuable, even if Nichols gets lost in his own material at times.

An engrossing, quietly unnerving film that's one of the year's best...with an astonishing performance by Michael Shannon.

It's so stunningly effective at establishing a sense of dread that it's almost impossible to recommend it without reservations.

The film has the form of a little domestic drama, but it's intense enough to, perhaps, cause you to start watching the skies yourself.

Is Curtis a prophet or is he just crazy? The script, by tyro director Jeff Nichols, does a good job keeping you guessing and still surprises you in the end.

Shannon's talent can be hard to control - it can burst the containment of his character and destabilize a movie - but in "Take Shelter" it is expertly deployed by writer-director Jeff Nichols.

Relentlessly sinister, filled with an eerily ambiguous sense of unease.

Shannon reteams with Shotgun Stories writer-director Nichols for another exploration of one man's wobbling mental state. But this time the story is much more introspective, and watching it is thoroughly unnerving.

A dread-inducing and sometimes downright creepy exercise in Hitchcockian paranoia.

A compelling character-driven piece that offers a beguiling, unsettling inside view of a troubled mind.

More Critic Reviews

Source: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/take_shelter/

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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weekly Rewind: Steve Jobs' secrets revealed, Nokia's last stand, HP PCs live on (Digital Trends)

Netflix-Reed-Hastings

Didn?t have time to keep up with every ripple in the technology pond this week? We?ve got you covered. Here are some of the most noteworthy stories from last week.

Nokia bets big on Mango-powered Lumia 800, 710

This week, Finnish phone-maker Nokia launched the Lumia 800 and 710 ? the company?s first two phones powered by Windows Phone 7.5. The new phones have impressive specs and feature Nokia-exclusive apps like turn-by-turn navigation, a public transportation guide, an ESPN hub, and a radio-like music service, but they won?t even arrive in the U.S. until 2012. As Jeffrey Van Camp spells out, that means Nokia will have to act fast to stay relevant. We?ve got photos of the new Nokia phones, which come in a variety of color, right here.?

Steve Jobs: Angry, opinionated, brilliant

The tech world is still buzzing about Steve Jobs this week thanks to a new, hugely successful biography written (with cooperation from Jobs) by author Walter Isaacson. The late Apple innovator was also featured on CBS? 60 Minutes in a two-part segment that gives fans a little more insight into the life of the man who brought the company back from the dead. We also found out what the biggest revelations are in the newly-released biography, including thoughts about rivals like Bill Gates and a desire to keep third-party apps off of the iPhone.?

IBM takes on a new CEO?

IBM?s current CEO Sam Palmisano will be retiring at the end of this year, and the company has decided to take on Senior Vice President (and IBM veteran since 1981) Virginia Rometty. The company recently surpassed Microsoft as the second most valuable technology company in the world, and according to sources, much of that success has been due to Rommetty?s contributions.?

Netflix continues its downfall

This week we found out that Netflix lost 800,000 subscribers in Q3, despite a jump in the company?s revenue. Customers have been dissatisfied with the company?s recent changes and fumbles, and it?s showing in the numbers. It?s anticipated that the company will go into the red in Q4 to pay for international expansion. The company?s CEO also recently detailed new Netflix strategies that seem oddly similar to those of rival HBO.?

Rest assured, HP is still making PCs

Back in August, rumblings?from HP?s former CEO Leo Apotheker that the company was considering selling off the Personal Systems Group (HP PCs as we know them) in favor of other areas of business. This week we heard back from current CEO Meg Whitman that despite those considerations, HP will continue making PCs for the time being.?

This article was originally posted on Digital Trends

More from Digital Trends

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/applecomputer/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/digitaltrends/20111029/tc_digitaltrends/weeklyrewindstevejobssecretsrevealednokiaslaststandhppcsliveon

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Stocks surge on European debt deal, GDP growth (AP)

NEW YORK ? Stocks are soaring after European leaders agreed on a deal to slash Greece's debt load and prevent the debt crisis there from engulfing larger countries like Italy. Stronger U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings also drove markets higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 300 points at midday. All 30 stocks in the Dow rose, led by aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. with a 7 percent gain. Commodities prices and Treasury yields also rose as investors took on more risk. The euro rose sharply against the dollar.

Europe's sweeping agreement, reached after an all-night summit meeting, is aimed at preventing the Greek government's inability to pay its debt from escalating into another financial crisis like the one in September 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Banks agreed to take 50 percent losses on the Greek bonds they hold. Europe will also strengthen a financial rescue fund to protect the region's banks and other struggling European countries such as Italy and Portugal.

"This seems to set aside the worries that there would be a massive contagion over there that would have brought everything down with it," said Mark Lamkin, head of Lamkin Wealth Management.

The Dow Jones industrial average surged 305 points, or 2.6 percent, to 12,173 at 12:30 Eastern. The Dow hasn't closed above 12,000 since Aug. 1 and is up 11.6 percent for the month. With only two full days of trading left in October, the Dow could have its biggest monthly gain since January 1987.

The S&P 500 rose 36, or 2.9 percent, to 1,278. The gain turned the S&P positive for the year for the first time since Aug. 3, just before the U.S. government's debt was downgraded. The Nasdaq composite rose 73, or 2.7 percent, to 2,723.

Small company stocks rose more than the broader market. That's a sign investors were more comfortable holding assets perceived as being risky but also more likely to appreciate in a strong economy. The Russell 2000 index jumped 4.1 percent.

Raw materials producers, banks and stocks in other industries that depend on a strong economy for profit growth led the way. Copper jumped 5 percent to $3.66 a pound and crude oil jumped 3 percent to $93 a barrel.

The euro rose sharply, to $1.42, as confidence in Europe's financial system grew. The euro was worth $1.39 late Wednesday and had been as low as $1.32 on Oct. 3. European stock indexes also soared. France's CAC-40 rose 6.3 percent and Germany's DAX jumped 6.1 percent.

Investors sold U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, an indication they feel less need for safer investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, rose to 2.30 percent from 2.21 percent late Wednesday.

European leaders still have to finalize the details of their latest plan. French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke with Chinese President Hu Jintao amid hopes that countries with lots of cash like China can contribute to the European rescue.

Past attempts to contain Europe's two-year debt crisis have proved insufficient. Greece has been surviving on rescue loans since May 2010. In July, creditors agreed to take some losses on their Greek bonds, but that wasn't enough to fix the problem.

Worries about Europe's debt crisis and a weak U.S. economy dragged the S&P 500 down 19.4 percent between April 29 and Oct. 3. That put it on the cusp of what's called a bear market, which is a 20 percent decline.

Since then, there have been a number of more encouraging signs on the U.S. economy. The government reported Thursday that the economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate from July through September on stronger consumer spending and business investment. That was nearly double the 1.3 percent growth in the previous quarter.

Despite the jitters over Europe, many large U.S. companies have been reporting strong profit growth in the third quarter.

Dow Chemical rose 8.6 percent after its profit last quarter rose 59 percent on strong sales growth from Latin America. Occidental Petroleum Corp. jumped 7.4 percent after reporting a 50 percent surge in income.

Citrix Systems Inc. rose 17 percent. The technology company's revenue rose 20 percent last quarter, and it forecast growth of up to 13 percent for 2012. Akamai Technologies Inc., whose products help speed the delivery of online content, jumped 16.8 percent after the company reported earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

Avon Products Inc. fell 18 percent, the most in the S&P 500, after the company said the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating its contacts with financial analysts and Avon's own probe into bribery in China and other countries.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/stocks/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111027/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

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Sprint Network Gets iPhone 4S Stress Test (NewsFactor)

Responding to reports of iPhone 4S speed issues, Sprint-Nextel said Wednesday that the performance of the phone on the carrier's nationwide network has been consistent with expectations.

"We are seeing a very low return rate for this device but we are watching the reports of speed issues very closely," Sprint said.

Sprint said its own benchmark tests have showed little to no performance difference between the iPhone models it now offers and those sold by rival carriers AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Nevertheless, Sprint said it saw opportunities to optimize performance -- specifically in high-network capacity areas.

"We see this as typical optimization work and do not have any specific area of concern," Sprint said in an e-mail statement. "We are listening to our customers and working closely with our partners at Apple to ensure optimal performance of iPhone devices on our network."

According to Sprint CEO Dan Hesse, the iPhone is well on its way to breaking the previous Sprint sales record held by the HTC EVO 4G, in terms of the percentage of device buyers who are additions to Sprint in the weeks following the launch. On the other hand, Sprint's avalanche of new iPhone subscribers is also a stress test for the carrier's network.

Worth Every Penny

The unavailability of Apple's iPhone from Sprint was the No. 1 reason why customers had switched from Sprint to another network in the past -- as well as why new customers were reluctant to try Sprint, Hesse said.

"Our early results of selling the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S have confirmed the iPhone's ability to attract new customers," Hesse told investors in a conference call Wednesday.

Sprint's iPhone deal with Apple will also provide a stress test with respect to the carrier's initial financial outlays. According to Sprint CFO Joseph Euteneuer, the cost of adding an iPhone customer to its network is roughly $200. The cost of adding an average non-iPhone customer is nearly 40 percent lower.

Still, Hesse believes Sprint's four-year iPhone contract with Apple -- which features a minimum commitment of $15.5 billion -- will prove to be worth every penny.

The customer lifetime value of an iPhone customer, Hesse said, is "at least 50 percent greater than in a typical smartphone user -- driven primarily by more efficient use of our network and lower churn."

Maximizing Profitability

Over the next four years, Sprint expects to reap huge rewards from its ability to offer the latest available iPhone models to its subscribers.

"We expect iPhone customers to be among our most profitable as the higher upfront acquisition costs are expected to be offset by longer customer tenure and lower support costs -- including data efficiency," Euteneuer told financial analysts.

Sprint undertook several measures during the third quarter to maximize the iPhone's profitability -- including the addition of a $10 surcharge to the network operator's popular unlimited data plans. Moreover, Sprint boosted the fees it charges subscribers for upgrades and early termination and bolstered its efforts to enforce existing network usage terms and conditions.

Sprint executives believe the new measures will generate an additional $1 billion to $1.2 billion from iPhone customers over the four year span of the carrier's deal with Apple. Moreover, the total value benefit from the iPhone deal for Sprint is expected to range $7 billion and $8 billion.

"As a result of the popularity of this device, we anticipate the iPhone could be 20 percent to 40 percent of our postpaid gross additions and upgrades," Euteneuer said.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/personaltech/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20111026/bs_nf/80763

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Friday, October 28, 2011

50 Tons of Plastic Recycled Into Scottish Foot Bridge [Architecture]

The charming rural scene pictured above actually contains 50 tons of discarded water bottles and sandwich containers, which were blended up and refashioned into this 90-foot-long plastic bridge. More »


Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/ya3qHxWnG8A/50-tons-of-plastic-recycled-into-scottish-foot-bridge

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Booyah tries to regain location gaming magic with MyTown 2 ...

Booyah was one of the early leaders in the location gaming market with MyTown, a check-in game that raced out ahead of Foursquare and Gowalla, but differentiated itself with its Monopoly for the real world approach. After 4.5 million downloads of MyTown, Booyah is back with MyTown 2, a new take on gaming that incorporates more of a CityVille approach while still using the real world as a game board.

MyTown 2, a universal iOS app which hits the App Store Thursday, works the city building angle but allows you to apply it to the real world. The original game also allowed you to buy real locations but the sequel now comes with an overhead view of the world that looks more like CityVille and We Rule. It also changes some of the mechanics. Now the price of a location is based on its real-world popularity with other players, who can also own the same property, and that also determines how much money the location produces. Gamers look to expand their town?s population, which allows players to build more business and improve their economy. Check-ins are no longer necessary to buy locations, but can be used to get bonuses, boosts and special rewards.

Booyah CEO Jason Willig, who replaced founder Keith Lee a month ago, said the sequel tries to find game experiences from the first game that spoke to people and expand upon them.

It?s an interesting move for Booyah, which has moved away from location-based gaming with titles like Night Club City and Early Bird. It?s now showing it still wants to innovate on this idea of location-based gaming. Booyah was never really in competition with Foursquare and Gowalla, which provide more of a utility for check-ins. And now those companies are moving even further away from their gaming mechanics while MyTown is trying to be even more like a real game.

I think it?s interesting that MyTown has also de-emphasized the check-in, which Willig said is not central to the game anymore but can serve more like a slot machine providing extras. It reminds of what Ville Vesterinen, founder of location-based game Shadow Cities noted, that much of location games are played from home or work so games need to allow people to play without necessarily always venturing out into the real world. Will MyTown 2 find an audience? Its predecessor raced out to?3 million downloads in its first year?though growth slowed after that. MyTown 2 has got an interesting take on city-building in the real world and I?m?hoping it can help explore more of the location-gaming genre, which is still just getting going.

Booyah could use some more momentum to justify the almost $30 million it?s raised from?Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Accel and DAG Ventures .

Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
Subscriber content. Sign up for a free trial.

Source: http://gigaom.com/2011/10/27/booyah-tries-to-regain-location-gaming-magic-with-mytown-2/

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Study questions outsourcing traffic camera systems (AP)

WASHINGTON ? One out of every five Americans lives in a community that pays a for-profit company to install and operate cameras that record traffic violations. A pro-consumer group says that practice could end up putting profits ahead of safety and accuracy.

Some contracts require cities to share revenue with camera vendors on a per-ticket basis or through other formulas as a percentage of revenue. Suffolk County, N.Y., for example, diverts half of the revenue from its red-light camera program to its vendor, according to the report being released Thursday by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group.

Another type of agreement ? conditional "cost-neutral" contracts ? also contain provisions that link payments to the number of tickets issued, although the payments are capped, the report said. Under these contracts, local governments pay a monthly fee to a camera vendor. If ticket revenues fail to cover the vendor's fee in any given month, cities may delay payments. That gives vendors "an incentive to ensure a minimum (number) of citations are issued," the report said.

As many as 700 communities, with a combined total of more than 60 million people, outsource their street and highway camera systems, the report found.

While vendors capture violations, police or other local officials approve which violations are issued tickets. Some contracts penalize cities if they don't approve enough tickets, effectively setting a ticket quota, the report said. That can undermine the authority of local authorities to when to issue tickets, it said.

"Automated traffic ticketing tends to be governed by contracts that focus more on profits than safety," said Phineas Baxandall, the report's co-author.

Baxandall acknowledged that cash-strapped communities have a financial incentive to maximize the number of citations they issue even when they don't use a vendor. But local governments are also accountable to voters, whereas private vendors aren't, he said.

Red-light cameras have been effective at saving lives by deterring motorists from running lights, said Anne Fleming, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

An analysis by the institute showed they saved 159 lives from 2004 to 2008 in the 14 biggest U.S. cities with cameras. If cameras had been operating during that period in all cities with populations of more than 200,000, 815 fewer people would have died, the institute estimated.

But Baxandall said research on the effectiveness of the cameras is unsettled. Some studies, he said, show motorists who are aware of the cameras sometimes cause injuries by slamming on their brakes to avoid being caught running a light.

Some red-light camera vendors have created and bankrolled organizations like the National Coalition for Safer Roads that appear to be grassroots civic groups, but which mainly promote greater use of red-light cameras, the report said.

David Kelly, president of the safer roads coalition, said the flaw in the research group's study is that vendors don't create traffic violations ? motorists do.

Vendors "aren't creating a market. The people running the red lights are creating the market," he said.

"We have saved lives," said Kelly, a former acting head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under President George W. Bush. "Do we want to have more people dying at intersections because they are running red lights, or do we want to do something about it?"

The move to privatize red-light camera and speed camera enforcement is part of a larger wave of outsourcing of government services, Kelly said.

"We have private industry all across traffic safety," he said.

The traffic enforcement industry has amassed significant political clout that it uses to shape traffic safety regulation nationwide, the report said. Camera vendors are aggressively lobbying to expand authorization for private traffic law enforcement to more states, and are marketing enforcement systems to more communities, it said.

About half of states have authorized the use of red-light cameras.

Camera vendors employed nearly 40 lobbyists this year in Florida whose agenda included killing a bill that would have required communities to adopt longer yellow light times to increase intersection safety and killing a separate bill that would have banned red-light camera systems, the report said.

Kelly said the research group also lobbies.

___

Online:

U.S. Public Interest Research Group http://www.uspirg.org/

National Coalition for Safer Roads http://saferoadssavelives.org/about-us/

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111027/ap_on_re_us/us_red_light_cameras

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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Sprint eyes new financing as iPhone swells costs (Reuters)

(Reuters) ? Sprint finally owned up to the massive bet it is making on iPhone, sending its shares down as much as 12 percent on Wednesday.

The No. 3 U.S. operator said it could need $7 billion in new financing over the next few years to cover a cash shortfall caused by heavy investments in the Apple Inc iPhone introduction and a big network upgrade.

Sprint said it does not expect the benefits from iPhone to exceed its costs until 2015. It also said it was negotiating a new deal with majority owned Clearwire Corp, its biggest client. Clearwire shares closed up 19.5 percent.

Sprint was sharply criticized for refusing to disclose iPhone costs and its intentions for Clearwire at an October 7 conference.

Besides the $7 billion network upgrade plan, Sprint has committed to pay at least $15.5 billion to Apple in the next four years for iPhone, but it expects that amount to be even bigger because it is based on the number of phones it sells.

Sprint, whose market capitalization is $7 billion, estimated the "net present value," or present value of anticipated profits from the contract, at $7 billion to $8 billion over the next four years.

Analysts were skeptical the bet would work.

"To meet their target, they'd effectively have to turn their entire company into an Apple shop," said Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett.

Another analyst said investors should stay away until they see clear signs Sprint will succeed.

"They're betting the house on two things at the same time," said Mizuho analyst Michael Nelson. "If they pull it off, great. If they don't, their financial performance would get materially worse, and they could have significant liquidity risks."

Nelson said it would be at least a year before investors could assess whether both plans are working because of the timing of the network upgrade.

Sprint warned it would need to refinance $4 billion of debt and raise up to $3 billion from vendor financing deals in the next few years to cover iPhone and network costs and keep its cash balance at a minimum of $2 billion.

Rating Agency Fitch said the company would need to go to the market to improve it's liquidity as soon as possible or face another review of its credit rating.

"We need to see it's a priority for the company," said Fitch analyst Bill Densmore, who added that his current B+ rating of the company has "limited flexibility" for any missteps by Sprint in executing its strategy.

IPHONE WORTH EVERY PENNY?

Sprint, which started taking iPhone orders on October 7, said it would pay Apple a subsidy that is 40 percent higher, or $200 more per device, than what it pays for other phones.

Chief Executive Officer Dan Hesse told analysts on a conference call the iPhone would be worth the extra cost as it has already lured record numbers of new customers to Sprint.

"IPhone has an expensive contract, but is worth every penny," Hesse said, but he added it was too early to estimate exactly how many iPhones he expects to sell.

Sprint promised that, over time, the iPhone would bring 50 percent more value to the company than any other handset.

In the meantime, the upfront costs from iPhone will cut fourth quarter operating income by between $500 million and $700 million to about $600 million to $800 million. Nelson had earlier estimated that profit at $1.1 billion.

Sprint gave a 2011 free cash flow forecast ranging from a loss of $200 million to a gain of $100 million. It had previously promised positive 2011 free cash flow, which generally refers to earnings including capital spending, but excluding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

The outlook overshadowed Sprint's smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss.

The company, which has struggled for years to stem customer defections, said the loss narrowed to $301 million, or 10 cents per share, from $911 million, or 30 cents per share, a year earlier. Analysts on average expected a loss of 22 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

But Sprint said it lost 44,000 customers in the quarter, compared with the average expectation of a loss of about 11,000 from nine analysts contacted by Reuters.

Net operating revenue rose to $8.33 billion from $8.15 billion a year earlier, but missed Wall Street expectations of $8.38 billion.

Sprint Credit Default Swaps, or the cost of insuring its debt, rose after the report. It now costs $1.475 million paid upfront to insure $10 million of Sprint debt, on top of $500,000 in annual payments. That is up from $1.25 million upfront plus $500,000 annually the day before.

Sprint shares closed down 7 percent at $2.51 on the New York Stock Exchange after falling as low as $2.38 earlier in the session.

Clearwire finished up 19.5 percent at $1.96 on Nasdaq. It lost a third of its value after Sprint comments at its October 7 meeting led investors to believe it was a bankruptcy risk and to worry that the parent might abandon it after the end of next year.

But Fitch's Densmore said it was unclear if the liquidity risks of Clearwire, which is currently seeking about $900 million in funding, have abated just because of Sprint's announcement it is looking for a potential deal.

"The only way we get more comfortable is if Sprint reaches and agreement and Clearwire is able to go out and get more funding. There's some hurdles to that," he said.

(Reporting by Sinead Carew and Yinka Adegoke; editing by Derek Caney, Lisa Von Ahn and Andre Grenon)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/tech/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111026/tc_nm/us_sprint

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Deficit-cutting panel looking at benefits, taxes

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011, to caution the deficit reduction supercommittee about not using retirement benefits to fix the nation's debt problems. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011, to caution the deficit reduction supercommittee about not using retirement benefits to fix the nation's debt problems. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, calls on the Senate to approve fifteen house-passed jobs bills, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011, during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of Calif., cautions the deficit reduction supercommittee about not using retirement benefits to fix the nation's debt problems, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2011, during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

(AP) ? Rival deficit-cutting plans advanced by Republicans and Democrats on Congress' secretive supercommittee would both mean smaller-than-expected cost of living benefit increases for veterans and federal retirees as well as Social Security recipients and bump up taxes for some individuals and families, according to officials familiar with the recommendations.

In all, the changes would reduce deficits by an estimated $200 billion over a decade, a fraction of the committee's minimum goal of $1.2 trillion in savings.

A final decision by the panel on legislation to reduce deficits is still a few weeks off, and given the political difficulties involved, there is no certainty that the six Republicans and six Democrats will be able to agree.

The two sides exchanged initial offers earlier this week, and each side swiftly found fault with the others' proposal in the privacy of the committee's rooms as well as in public.

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, noting published reports that Democrats are seeking $3 trillion in higher taxes, said, "This is the same number that was in the president's budget, the same number that ? that they ? I don't know that they found any Democrats in the House and Senate to vote for."

"I don't think it's a reasonable number," he said. Boehner also chided Democrats for recommending $50 billion in savings from Medicaid over the next decade, well below what Republicans are seeking.

"Let's understand over the next 10 years, we're going to spend $10 trillion on Medicaid. I just think there's a lot more room there to help find common ground," he said.

At the same time, Boehner emphasized, "I am committed to getting to an outcome" that clears the committee and Congress. The speaker negotiated privately with President Barack Obama over the summer in deficit-reduction talks that failed to produce an agreement.

At a news conference of her own, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California said she wanted a compromise that was "big, bold and balanced," a phrase that Democrats use to convey an insistence on higher tax revenue.

She pointedly declined to embrace what Democrats had presented to the supercommittee. She called it "Sen. Baucus' package," a reference to the Montana Democrat and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. That ran directly counter to his aides' statements earlier in the week that he was speaking for a majority of Democrats on the panel ? and tacit confirmation that at least two of the party's members had not signed on as supporters.

Ironically, while the Republican and Democratic panel members remain far apart, one of the relatively few items in common was a potentially controversial recommendation to change the calculation for annual cost-of-living increases in federal programs as well as the yearly adjustments in income tax brackets.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the recommended change "produces lower estimates of inflation than the traditional" measurement of the Consumer Price Index. Since December 2000 the difference on average has amounted to 0.3 percentage points, according to the agency.

A decision to base annual cost of living increases on the new calculation would lower Social Security costs by $108 billion over a decade, and the impact on benefits for federal civilian and military pension programs and veterans' benefits would save an additional $23 billion, according to calculations made in February 2010.

Congressional experts said the list of federal programs that would be affected is extensive, and included Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and more, but the absence of a written description by either side in the deficit negotiations makes a complete listing impossible.

Officials in both parties said their plans would affect income tax brackets, which currently are adjusted annually to make sure that inflation alone does not expose more earnings to taxation.

By slowing the rate of the adjustment, more income would be taxed than is currently forecast, a change that Congress' Joint Tax Committee recently estimated would produce $59.6 billion in revenue to the Treasury over a decade.

Just as changes to Social Security and benefit programs are politically problematic for Democrats, tax increases are difficult for Republicans.

Americans for Tax Reform, an organization led by anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist, earlier this year said slowing the pace at which tax brackets are adjusted for inflation "would most certainly be a tax hike."

There was one caveat, though.

"This idea can of course be part of a discussion of comprehensive and revenue-neutral tax reform, but stand-alone it is a tax hike."

Both Republicans and Democrats included tax reform in their presentations inside the supercommittee, and the issue has great political appeal.

But the two sides differ dramatically on the details. Democrats called for tax reform that would generate an additional $1 trillion in revenue over a decade, while Republicans said they envisioned no increase.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c25518f464186bf7a2ac026580ce7/Article_2011-10-27-Supercommittee-Debt/id-adf0113034f84126ae62e421fef21e1f

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Stocks end higher on reports of help for Europe

Specialist Dermot Bermingham, left, and trader Kevin Lodewick, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2011. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Specialist Dermot Bermingham, left, and trader Kevin Lodewick, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2011. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

(AP) ? Stock indexes finished higher Wednesday following reports that China will come to the aid of Europe by investing in a financial rescue fund.

Agence France-Presse reported that China has agreed to invest in Europe's financial rescue fund, which will be used to support struggling countries and banks in the European Union. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 100 points after the report came out in the early afternoon.

Stocks had been mixed for much of the day as investors weighed stronger earnings from Boeing and Corning with uncertainty about the outcome of a key meeting among European leaders.

Top European officials met in Brussels to discuss how to contain the region's debt crisis, which has festered for two years. One consideration is increasing the power of a financial rescue fund, which Germany's parliament approved shortly before U.S. stock markets opened.

European officials announced a plan after the U.S. market closed that will require the region's banks to increase their levels of cash to better protect themselves from losses on the Greek bonds they hold. European governments have been pressing the banks to forgive significant amounts of the Greek government's debt.

"This is a total news and rumor-driven market right now, and everyone's attention is focused on Europe," said Joe Bell, an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 162.42 points, or 1.4 percent, to 11,869.04. Boeing Co. led the way. It rose 4.5 percent after it reported a bigger profit for its latest quarter than analysts expected. It also raised its forecast for 2011 earnings.

The S&P 500 index rose 12.95, or 1.1 percent, to 1,242. The Nasdaq composite added 12.25, or 0.5 percent, to 2,650.67. Amazon.com Inc. slumped 12.7 percent after reporting a 73 percent drop in income. The retailer cited higher costs for expansion.

Strong economic reports also helped send stocks higher. Businesses ordered more heavy machinery and other long-lasting manufactured goods last month, after excluding aircraft orders, which can be volatile. That indicates businesses are still spending on equipment despite worries about a weak economy and Europe's debt problems. Sales of new homes rose in September after falling for four straight months. Lower home prices enticed buyers.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.21 percent from 2.14 percent late Tuesday as demand diminished for assets perceived to be relatively safe.

Corning Inc. rose 3 percent after reporting a 3 percent increase in income last quarter on stronger sales of glass for flat-panel televisions. Its earnings and revenue beat analysts' expectations.

First Solar Inc. rose 6.6 percent. It reported results a week earlier than expected, and revenue and earnings both improved. That helped the stock recover some of its losses from Tuesday, when it fell 24 percent after the surprise departure of the company's chief executive.

Five stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was slightly above average at 4.8 billion shares.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-10-26-Wall%20Street/id-a93fa582b4294ee2a56043a876793fe7

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Joe the Plumber: I'm running (Politico)

The 2008 presidential campaign media sensation known as ?Joe the Plumber? announced Tuesday evening in a Hungarian restaurant in Toledo, Ohio, that he is running for Congress.

Samuel ?Joe the Plumber? Wurzelbacher said he will make the bid as a Republican in Ohio?s 9th Congressional District, a seat that currently being contested by Democrats Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) due to redistricting.

Continue Reading

Joe the plumber announces run

?Politicians keep playing politics with our lives. I?m sick and tired of it. I thought long and hard about running and why I would do it,? said Wurzelbacher, according to a video of his announcement on YouTube. ?I?m not the kind of plumber who uses duct tape.?

The newly announced candidate said he intends to harness the fame that came his way after the media captured him confronting then-candidate Barack Obama on the 2008 presidential campaign trail.

?Going around the country for the last three years, there are a lot of people who would make great statesmen, ? but unfortunately they don?t have the name recognition, but they can?t get the money,? Wurzelbacher said.

Wurzelbacher said he is reluctantly running as Republican because he would otherwise not stand a chance of winning, but that his party affiliation did not encompass who he was as a candidate.

?I?m running as a Republican, but by God, that doesn?t encompass who I am, because I want to represent all Americans,? Wurzelbacher said. ?I am going to run, because I?ve been there. I know how it is to live paycheck to paycheck. I?ve done that for most of my life, and I?m doing it now.?

Wurzelbacher emphasized that his apolitical background would be an advantage.

?That?s what people in the trades do, we fix things,? Wurzelbacher said on MSNBC on Wednesday. ?I make things whole. Politicians for the most part seem to get into the game to live off the American people?s backs. And it?s just not right.?

The candidate said that politicians had turned Americans against one another.

?In the last 40 years, look at what the Republicans and Democrats have brought us to. There?s more hate and division in this country than you can shake a stick at, and it?s done through the media and through our politicians pitting us Americans against each other,? he said.

Wurzelbacher became an overnight sensation after he confronted Barack Obama on the campaign trail in 2008, and was subsequently mentioned several times by Republican presidential nominee John McCain in a presidential debate.

The race will be closely watched, not just because ?Joe the Plumber? is running there, but also because Kaptur will face a challenge as Kucinich is expected to compete against her in the primary due to the loss of his seat in redistricting.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/politics/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/politico_rss/rss_politico_mostpop/http___www_politico_com_news_stories1011_66890_html/43395317/SIG=11mvqjkp0/*http%3A//www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66890.html

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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Inmate Wants Access to Untested DNA (ABC News)

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Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/152647750?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Analysis: Dragon tail risk: The cost of a China crash (Reuters)

(Reuters) ? The China hard-landing debate is a classic tail risk story -- an unlikely scenario, but if it materializes the consequences could be catastrophic.

Because of their close trade links, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong would be among the first to feel the pain should China's growth weaken dramatically.

However, it would probably take a shock even bigger than what followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy to spread significant damage beyond Asia.

Judging from the latest HSBC survey of China's manufacturing sector, released on Monday, there is no evidence that growth is collapsing in the world's second biggest economy.

Indeed, not one of the 30 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted China's 2012 growth rate would dip below 8 percent.

But that has not silenced speculation that China is heading for an economic disaster. Some economists have tried to calculate the potential fallout just in case their forecasts prove to be overly optimistic.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economists estimated that if China's real per capita gross domestic product fell by 2 percentage points, the pain would remain contained within Asia.

"It would take a severe shock to China for the negative spillovers to be transmitted beyond Asia," they wrote in a note last week to clients.

A 4 percentage point drop would be enough to spread to parts of Europe and the Middle East, with growth suffering in countries including Russia, Kuwait and Finland. Annual global growth would probably drop by 0.5 percentage points.

The last time China's economy recorded a decline anywhere close to that magnitude was after the Lehman bankruptcy. Year-over-year growth dropped to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 9.0 percent in the prior three-month period.

A full-blown crash, which BofA-Merrill described as a 6 percentage point drop in China's real per capita GDP, would harm Europe's biggest economies -- Germany, France and Britain -- and even nick U.S. growth. It would probably shave 0.8 percentage points off global growth.

That would be a significant hit considering the International Monetary Fund thinks world output will be up a relatively modest 4 percent in 2012.

DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

BofA-Merrill considers the risk of a China crash negligible -- a 0.13 percent probability event.

But the China bears are growing louder in their warnings of an impending doom. China simply cannot rely on fixed-asset investment to drive 8-percent-plus growth forever, they argue.

Heavily indebted local governments could default. A property market crash may drive hundreds or even thousands of developers out of business. Bad loans may pile up on banks' books, and China could face an all-out credit crisis.

"China is undoubtedly a severely imbalanced economy, suffering from credit-fueled investment and housing excesses that could easily spin out of control and crash, just like all the other 'highly regarded' economic bubbles before it," Societe Generale strategist and well-known bear Albert Edwards wrote in an October 20 research note.

Jim Walker, founder of Hong Kong-based consultancy Asianomics, said it would be a "miracle" if China's 2012 GDP slows to just 7 percent.

"We're really looking for something much, much worse than that," he said. "China will be lucky to get away with 5 percent."

That would be a drop of more than 4 percentage points from 2011's expected growth. Not only would China's regional trade partners take a hit, but so would commodity exporters such as Australia and Indonesia. China accounted for 65 percent of the world's iron ore imports in 2009, and 15 percent of coal imports, according to IMF data.

LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE

A China slowdown would bring some benefits for Asia, albeit small ones. Lower prices would bring welcome inflation relief for Asia's commodity importers, said Johanna Chua, chief Asia-Pacific economist for Citi in Hong Kong.

It might also swing a little bit more foreign investment toward other Southeast Asian economies that have struggled to compete with China for overseas funds.

China itself invested only about $2.4 billion last year into the 10 countries that make up the Association of South East Asian Nations, according to Bofa-Merrill economist Chua Hak Bin in Singapore, too little to pose a systemic threat on its own.

There is considerably more money flowing the other way. Since 1995, ASEAN has invested about $75 billion in China, with Singapore far and away the most exposed, accounting for $62 billion of that. A China hard landing could cause "significant" portfolio losses, BofA-Merrill's Chua said.

But it also looks clear that Beijing will act if growth looks likely to weaken dramatically. It has room to ramp up government spending, ease credit conditions, and slow the appreciation of the yuan currency to give exports a boost.

"If China is hard landing, I agree with the bulls on one thing: expect the authorities to become aggressively stimulative," SocGen's Edwards said.

(Reporting by Emily Kaiser in Singapore; Editing by Mathew Veedon)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/economy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111024/bs_nm/us_economy_china

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Regulator throws lifeline to underwater borrowers (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? U.S. homeowners who owe more than their properties are worth got new help on Monday when a U.S. regulator expanded a government program in a step that could help up to one million borrowers.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, eased the terms of a refinancing program which helps so-called underwater borrowers who have been on time with payments but are unable to refinance.

The overhaul is the latest effort to deal with a problem at the center of the economy's weak recovery -- the crippled housing market. Officials have been frustrated that numerous efforts to bolster the market have shown little success.

FHFA said it was scrapping a cap that prohibited borrowers whose mortgages exceeded 125 percent of their property's value from participating in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which is targeted at loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"This is an appropriate balancing of risk that's being borne by Fannie and Freddie, and hence the American taxpayer," FHFA's acting director, Edward DeMarco, said in a conference call with reporters. "This will make HARP more available."

The government seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest sources of U.S. mortgage financing, in September 2008 as losses on loans they backed spiraled, and the two firms have so far been propped up with $141 billion in taxpayer funds.

After meeting with DeMarco earlier this month, one lawmaker said the expanded program could help as many as 600,000 to one million borrowers. But that is only a fraction of the estimated 11 million homeowners who are underwater. DeMarco said there was no way to forecast how many borrower could be helped.

ADMINISTRATION PUSH

The Obama administration had pushed FHFA to widen the program to more borrowers. The regulator had moved cautiously, wary of piling two much risk on the two mortgage companies.

President Barack Obama will showcase the changes at a stop on Monday in Nevada, the first leg of a campaign-style swing through western states that may be crucial to his re-election in 2012.

To encourage banks to participate in the program, FHFA is revamping it to protect lenders from having to buy back HARP loans if underwriting problems are later found. Banks will only have to verify that borrowers have made at least six of their last mortgage payments and, in most cases, there will not need to be an appraisal.

FHFA said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will waive certain fees for borrowers that refinance into loans with a shorter term, such as 15 years, aiming to spur homeowners to pay down the amount they owe at a faster rate.

"That gives the borrower greater financial options and certainly is also an opportunity to strengthen the borrower's household balance sheet," DeMarco said.

The Obama administration sees lowering mortgage payments as a way to free-up cash for other spending that could help support the economy's tepid recovery.

Many economists, however, have argued bolder steps to help struggling borrowers are needed given the weight housing is placing on the recovery.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, in a Reuters column, urged mass sales of foreclosed homes to investors for rentals and the controversial idea of writing off principal owed by struggling homeowners.

"With constructive approaches by independent regulators, far better policies could be in place six months from now," he wrote. "There is nothing else on the feasible political horizon that can make as a large a difference in driving American economic recovery."

Along with the others changes, FHFA said it was waiving the need for certain contracts that outline the incentives of originators, issuers, and investors when a loan is sold and securitized. Ending these representations and warranties will increase competitiveness for lenders and create an incentive for them to refinance existing borrowers.

FHFA also said it was extending the life of the program until December 31, 2013 and that it wanted to focus on loans made between 2004-2008, when borrowers typically locked into rates above 5 percent. Currently, the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan is 4.11 percent, according to Freddie Mac.

The program is limited to loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guaranteed before June 2009.

(Reporting by Margaret Chadbourn; Editing Andrew Hay)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111024/pl_nm/us_usa_housing

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